EXCHANGE RATE CHANGES AND REGIONAL EXPORT PERFORMANCE IN UZBEKISTAN

Abstract

This study examines exchange rate movements and regional export performance in Uzbekistan using official annual data for 2018–2025, covering 14 territorial units. The analysis distinguishes concurrent long-term increases from annual co-movement and evaluates correlations across seven common calendar years. Although the annual average exchange rate and national export value increased, with 13 regions recording export growth, the correlation between annual exchange rate changes and mean regional export changes was −0.481 and weakened to −0.052 when 2020 was excluded. An exploratory permutation benchmark of 0.273 provides no evidence of a stable positive annual association or a causal effect. Imported inputs, destination demand and invoicing practices remain plausible mechanisms requiring further data. The findings caution against treating nominal depreciation as a sufficient condition for export expansion.